A Good Start

Unsurprisingly, I’m pretty damn happy with the season so far. It’s been a dramatic shift in mood since March, when I sat in the pub wanting to cry into my steak and chips as Derby demolished us and the bar staff laughed at me.

A lot of that shift has to do with the man in the dugout; we are no longer hostage to Davies’ one man war against anyone who looks at him funny and the painfully inconsistent performances that characterised both his spells in charge. Instead we have Stuart Pearce at the helm, a man who is so iconic to Forest fans that fans of my generation and younger who never got to see him play in the Garibaldi in person are raised to understand that he is THE legendary player.

His track record in management is not the most illustrious (if he was available Martin O’Neill would be the former Forest player I’d most want in charge on that basis), but his commitment to the club and affinity with the fans is hard to underestimate. The noise when he walked out at a full City Ground before the Blackpool game was up there with the most incredible atmosphere’s I’ve ever been a part of, genuinely rivalling the dramatic promotion from league one on the final day of the 2007-2008 season. He’s a man who captained the club for the best part of a decade, scored 92 goals from left back and famously said he’d rather go on the dole than manage Derby.

He’s also a man who prides himself on honesty and humility, a quality present in his interviews since taking over the job. This was highlighted in the wake of the sales of Darlow and Lascelles to Newcastle (they’ve since been loaned back and now the dust has settled it looks like a good bit of business for the club). Pearce was scheduled to answer fan’s questions for an hour on BBC radio Nottingham that evening. Some managers would have made excuses and declined to show up for the interview, others might have turned up but answered very guardedly, giving away little and leaving the fans nervous and uncertain. Davies and managers of his ilk might have come out with an ill-considered attack on Fawaz that would have doomed the relationship.

Instead Pearce answered questions honestly for the entire hour, explaining what had happened from his perspective, expressing disappointment with how the deal was handled, but making great efforts to reaffirm his commitment to the club and otherwise strong relationship with the chairman. It was such a refreshing experience after the paranoia and aggression that characterised so much of Davies’ interactions with fans and the media, to hear Pearce come out and answer questions openly and calmly. How he handled it certainly left room for the details of the deal to become clear and Fawaz’s to explain his side of the story, which seems to have allowed both to move on and continue a promising relationship between them.

The passion that earned him the nickname Psycho is still there, bubbling under the surface (as an unfortunate linesman at Hillsborough found out the hard way after a dodgy offside decision), but for all the joy it brings to see Pearce’s iconic clenched fist punch the air after a goal, it’s the calmness with which he has handled his return to the club that is encouraging. Hopefully that controlled passion will rub off on the players.

Pearce’s interview brings me onto the other man central to Forest’s strong start to the season, Fawaz Al Hasawi, chairman and owner of the club since 2012. It’s not been a smooth road between then and now; there’ve been numerous incidents, before the Lascelles/Darlow incident, that have been indicative of the fact that this is his first experience of running a football club. The harsh sacking of Sean O’Driscoll with Forest in the play off positions at Christmas 2012, the seemingly doomed from the start hiring of McLeish and then his eagerness to support Davies allowing him to create a toxic atmosphere around the club were all misjudgements in my eyes, but made with good intentions.

This latest incident, with the full details available now, is suggestive of a man understandably used to being the final decision man when it comes to the business, a situation that is more complicated in football because of the importance of the manager. There needed to be better communication between him and Pearce, something that will hopefully be helped in the future by the appointment of the experienced Paul Faulkner as Chief Executive.

One thing that has been clear from the start, even amidst his worst decisions, is the good intentions of Fawaz. He is clearly passionate about the club and his interactions with the fans show a desire not just to be an effective chairman but a popular one as well; someone who keeps the fans informed and is one of them rather than a straight forward moneyman. At several games last year the City Ground reverberated to chants of “We love you Fawaz, we do”, not the kind of chant many chairmen get to enjoy.

He has backed each of his managers in the transfer market, breaking the club’s previous record fee to sign Britt Assombalonga (whose 4 goals in August suggest that could prove to be a wise investment) and building a squad that can truly challenge for promotion to the Premiership. This is the first year I can remember that I spent August transfer deadline day genuinely believing we didn’t need any signings. It looks likely that in the near future we might have to consider something like a change to the stadium name in order to attract the big money sponsorship deals that can help us meet FFP restrictions, but I’m reasonably confident that Fawaz won’t consider doing anything like Tan has done at Cardiff or Alam plans at Hull. It would be out of character from what he’s shown us so far.

So we’ve got good people in charge that are passionate about getting Forest out of the Championship and are loved by fans. But good intentions and popularity don’t win football matches, we’re unbeaten because the players have fed off the optimism around the club and delivered a series of passionate, disciplined and frequently entertaining displays. The most promising thing perhaps is that we’ve made it through August unbeaten despite never playing to our full potential for 90 minutes. The first half against Blackpool was strong, as was the second against Reading. We showed a spine and fight against Bournemouth and Sheffield Wednesday that saw us come away from two tough away trips with 6 points when we could easily had 2 or less.

Another element of our start that has pleased me is the nature of most of our goals. Last season, partly due to the lack of in-form strikers, we relied heavily on goals from the midfield trio of Lansbury, Reid and Paterson, which though entertaining and frequently spectacular, highlighted a weakness in the set up. This season the majority of our goals have come from wingers or wing backs getting near the box and whipping in a dangerous cross for a striker or midfielder to tap in. It’s a pleasingly straight forward, almost old fashioned, approach and its reaping great rewards so far. We still have the same potential for wonder goals but the partnership of Assombalonga and Fryatt looks like it has the potential to be a reliable source of goals throughout the season, something we clearly lacked previously. It’s incredible to me that Paterson can’t get into the first 11, considering he was arguably the best player of last season, but Antonio and Burke have started so well it’s hard to argue with Pearce’s selections so far.

We also look like we’re getting gradually more solid at the back as players come back from injury. On the displays so far, my first choice back four would be (from left to right), Cohen, Hobbs, Mancienne and Lichaj, but the fact we have strong cover in each of those positions is encouraging after so many seasons where we seemed to be constantly running out of square pegs.

After the international break we play Derby at home, looking to confirm our promotion potential and maybe get a little bit of revenge on our fiercest rivals. It’ll be a close game and our toughest test so far, but hopefully we will go into it with a fully fit squad, something we rarely had last season. We’ve also got an exciting game against Tottenham to look forward to in the League Cup; a game where there’s no shame in losing but a good chance to build momentum with a cup shock.

All in all, I’m not sure I’ve ever been more optimistic about Forest after the first month of the season and though there will inevitably be rocky patches I’m confident we will be around the play off pack this year and who knows maybe we can sneak an automatic spot. 

It’s a strong Championship this year definitely and it’s been a dramatic opening month for a lot of clubs.

My thoughts on the start for a few other clubs

It’s getting to the point where I can’t bring myself to laugh at Leeds anymore, it just feels cruel, as the club’s fans are the victims of yet another terrible owner. The appointment of Dave Hockaday seemed bizarre when it happened and his dismissal, while arguably not a shock, only adds to the chaos at the club. They’re a big enough club that surely eventually someone fit to run the club will arrive, but for the time being it’s hard to see this being a happy season for them.

Just down the M1 it’s a different story as Wednesday, despite some takeover uncertainty, have started the season looking stable and threatening. I’m sure a lot of Wednesday fans felt frustrated they didn’t get anything out of the game against us at the weekend and on the basis of what I saw I imagine very few clubs will get an easy game at Hillsborough this year. Nuhiu looks more dangerous than last year and Stuart Gray has them well organised.

Watford have made a great start on the pitch, but manager Sanino’s sudden departure suggests that behind the scenes not everything is going so well. They’ve held onto Troy Deeney which is important and the appointment of Oscar Garcia is a solid, if not exciting choice. If the new manager can settle in reasonably quickly and there’s no more backroom drama, then they have a good chance for at least the play offs.

My pre-season favourites for promotion of Wigan, Derby and Norwich, are all starting to show some real form while Rotherham, Brentford and Wolves have proven they won’t be pushovers to go back down.

Fulham have started poorly and Magath needs to turn things round quickly or he’ll be out of a job, but I can’t see them going down. Similarly Ipswich will improve over the season, McCarthy’s a good boss at this level. I doubt Millwall will keep pace with the play off pack over the course of the season, but plenty would have said that about Holloway’s Blackpool, so who knows. Jose Riga’s Blackpool are a different question entirely and I’d be amazed if he’s still in the post by Christmas.

So from my perspective it’s been a great start and I’m feeling positive about the season, but the beauty/nerve shredding cruelty of both this league has a tendency to make anyone who puts too much faith in predictions look very stupid indeed.

The End Is Nigh

Today's post is going to be kind of a follow up piece to yesterdays. I'm going to take a more of an overall look at the Championship with the majority of teams now only having 1 game left to play.

At the top QPR are, for the next 5 days at least, champions and i have to concede that they've earned the promotion. They've been by far the most consistent team in the division and in Taarabt have one of the most talented players. The FA have handled the whole issue of the disciplinary hearing for QPR fielding midfielder Faurlin while he was owned by a third party, which is illegal, almost farcically badly. I just can't understand why they've let it drag on to the point where the hearing is only being held in the final week of the season. If they'd dealt with it in March they could have handed out a judgement without it seeming calculated around how it affects the final league standings. A serious points deduction, especially if it is anything near the 15 points the Sun claim (i have zero faith in the truth of their report) then QPR could slip into the play offs. Now much as i love anything that pisses off Neil Warnock, it wouldn't be fair or right to deny them the championship.

It is kind of ironic that after spending so long complaining that a fine isn't a worthy punishment for fielding an illegible player (the whole Tevez-West Ham-Sheffield United saga) he could fall foul of laws partly introduced because of it.

It's hard to comment on the fight for second place as both Cardiff and Norwich play tomorrow and those results will be hugely telling as to who gets that last automatic spot. I'd prefer it to be Norwich for two reasons; firstly i feel they've been the marginally better team over the last 44 games and play some really good football, secondly because Forest have done the double over Cardiff this year already so i'd rather meet them in the Play Offs than Norwich.

Barring a dramatic collapse by Forest and an even more stunning win by Leeds on the final day it seems that the other teams in the Play Offs will be Forest, Swansea and Reading. I don't see much point making predictions as to who will get promotion via the play offs as they have a habit of confounding pundits and fans alike.

At the bottom it's all over for Scunthorpe, Preston and Sheffield United. Preston were relegated last week but the other two's resistance finally ended on Saturday. I'm personally a little sad to see Sheffield United relegated; i don't reckon Forest will get promotion this year and i always enjoy the games against Sheffield teams so it'll be dull to be in the Championship without either local team, although at least i'll have bragging rights for a year at least.

Today's song is one which i associate with Championship football for two reasons. Firstly because it's played at the City Ground every game about 10 minutes before kick off so it's intrinsically linked to my love for Forest and some of the best memories i have. Secondly because it was used on a highlights show for a couple of seasons.

11 Of The Best From The Second Tier

Yesterday i looked at the PFA Premiership Team of the Year, and today i want to look at the Championship one. I actually agree quite a few of the decisions, but i'll give my justifications for why i agree with them.

Lee Camp (PFA chose Paddy Kenny) - It's a close one and i have huge respect for Paddy Kenny, plus the championship seems to have quite a few extremely talented goalkeepers (Westwood at Coventry, Speroni at Palace and De Vries at Swansea are three good examples), but my choice in goal would have to be Lee Camp. Now i'm sure some people will accuse me of bias here, perhaps with some degree of accuracy, but Camp is one of the most consistent goal keepers i've ever watched and THE best shot stopper i've seen at Forest or anywhere in the Championship. I've lost count of the amount of times he's saved a shot i was certain was going in.

Kyle Naughton (Same) - He's been on loan at Leicester from Tottenham and in a lot of games that quality has shone through. He's a solid defender but it's what he offers going forward with his pace and quality that make him really stand out (5 goals from right back for a player who isn't a major aeriel threat is very impressive and a couple of those, especially the one against Coventry, were stunning goals.)

Luke Chambers (Wes Morgan) - Now i agree that one of Forest's centre back pairing should be in this team as, at least until the last month, our success in the league had been based upon just how tight our defence was and Morgan and Chambers are a major factor in that, along with Camp. The PFA picked Morgan and there's not much in it, but i would actually say Chambers has been marginally better this season; he has a very good habit of getting last ditch tackles and blocks in. He's had to wait for his chance this year, having often been played in his less favoured position of right back, but i think he's taken it well.

Ashley Williams (Same) - The Swansea defender has impressed me every time i've seen him play; big and strong but with a decent ability to distribute the ball once he's won it. The only black mark against his name for me is that when i think of him i can't help but think of the bad luck/mistakes that have led to him scoring as many own goals as he's scored goals for Swansea this year (3, with the own goal against Derby being particularly farcical.)

Ian Harte (Same) - The 33 year old Reading, and former Leeds, Left back has re-established himself as one of the most effective wing backs in the country. I always rated him while he was at Leeds during their successful period and he's definitely showing some of that form now he's at promotion chasing Reading. His biggest asset is his free kicks, they're devastating and remind me on occasion of another left back who chipped in with his fair share of goals, Stuart Pearce. 10 goals from left back is a very useful contribution.

Adel Taarabt (Same) - There's been plenty written about the Morrocan play maker, often gushing praise, often highly deserved. His temperament has been questioned before and i suspect will be again but in terms of pure footballing talent he has no equal in the Championship. A player i suspect only just missed out on the PFA team from Forest, Lewis Mcgugan (who for a while seemed to be attempting to have a two man goal of the season competition with Taarabt) is on his day arguably close, but he's been quieter in the second half of this season while the QPR man has continued to be crucial to their title challenge.

Scott Sinclair (Same) - I've watched Sinclair play a few times this season and one of the main thoughts that strikes me every time is that he is almost unfairly quick, especially when you consider that he can keep the ball under such tight control while running at full pace. He's another player whose form has dropped off in the past few weeks but for the large majority of the season he's been terrifying any defence he's played against and he's responsible for some of the goals of the season.

Andy King (Same) - The Leicester City central midfielder lacks some of the flair of the other men in this midfield but his comparative subtlety belies a real talent. He's the driving force in Leicester's midfield, leading the club's goal scoring chart with 14 in the league and it wouldn't surprise me if he is near the top in terms of assists as well.

Wes Hoolahan (Same) - Hoolahan has one of the sweetest left foots in England, let alone the Championship and so far as passing and build up play are concerned in my opinion there's few better.

Danny Graham (Same) - In a Watford team that's been hamstrung by it's own inconsistency Graham has scored impressively regularly, leading the Championship golden boot race and enjoying the best season of his career.

Grant Holt (Dave Nugent) - Nugent's selection baffled me a little here; he's undoubtedly a good striker but there are plenty i'd list above him in terms of both goal scoring exploits and team play (Becchio at Leeds, Bothroyd at Cardiff, Morrison at Milwall and especially Shane Long at Reading who's in the form of his life right now) but i think any team of the year has to include Grant Holt. His presence here annoys me a little, purely because he was at Forest for a while but used so poorly by Colin Calderwood that we never got to see just how good he can be; instead he dropped down a few leagues to Shrewsbury, then went to Norwich and has worked his way up scoring 64 goals in 120 performances for those two teams. He also works hard for the team and is involved in a lot of Norwich's best moves so how Nugent was picked ahead of him i don't know.

Today's song is a random choice, but it's a song i ended up listening to for the first time in ages when it popped into my head quite randomly earlier on, it's 'Man of Constant Sorrow' by the 'Soggy Bottom Boys', the band from the Coen Brother's film, 'O Brother, Where Art Thou'.

Promotion, Relegation and Unfulfilled Potential - Life in the Championship

Right the next few days blogs are going to be me looking the the 4 main leagues in English football and trying to make some informed predictions about how i think they're going to pan out as they enter the final month of the season.

I'm going to start with the Championship rather than the Premiership for the simple reason that it is where the majority of my attention is focussed as i'm a Nottingham Forest fan.

It looks now like Forest aren't even going to make the play offs this season which is disappointing considering both how close we came to promotion last season and how promising the season looked only a month or so ago, when we were closing in on 2nd place and it seemed very possible that we might get automatic promotion. That's now pretty much impossible and even 6th place and a chance to go up through the play offs is beginning to look a little overly optimistic. The basis for our previously reasonable looking promotion bid was the strength of our defence; we weren't scoring a huge number of goals but we were barely conceding either. Now both trends have been reversed, in the last 3 games we've scored 6 and conceded 11. I watched two of those games (A 3-2 defeat away to Swansea and a 4-1 defeat at Leeds) and listened to the other (today's 4-3 home defeat to Reading) and i don't think we were totally outplayed in any of those games, even the Swansea game where we were second best for the majority of the game we very nearly stole a point at the death when Anderson hit the post with a header. However we're simply not clinical enough going forward and our defence is suddenly worryingly leaky. Add in a bit of bad luck in terms of injuries and suspensions and it's easy to spot the reasons why we've fallen off the pace. The way we're playing at the moment simply isn't good enough to merit promotion and there are several teams above and around us who are playing much better, much more consistently.

Of those teams QPR are pretty much guaranteed promotion despite their shock 4-1 defeat away at bottom club Scunthorpe. That is unless the FA hits them hard with a sizable points deduction for fielding an ineligible player earlier in the season. However it seems most likely that they will have maybe 5 points deducted which i don't think would be enough for any of the chasing pack to catch them so i reckon they'll be champions.

I think 2nd place is between Swansea and Norwich and on the basis of today's game you'd have to back Swansea to win that particular race. The game was much more even than the 3-0 score line suggested, if Norwich had been a tiny bit more clinical or the Swansea keeper Doris De Vries had had an even slightly off day the result would have been very different. What impressed me was the quality of the passing football that both teams played today and have played most of the times i've seen them this season.

Out of the other chasing group of Reading, Cardiff, Leeds and Millwall i suspect Reading are the only ones who might challenge for 2nd spot as they're on a very impressive run right now and have an arguably easier run in than some of the teams around them. I say arguably because the beauty of the Championship when compared to the Premiership is how often shock results are thrown up.

So if i had to make a prediction i'd say the top 6 will look like this at 3 o'clock on May 7th.

1. QPR
2. Swansea
3. Norwich
4. Reading
5. Cardiff
6. Leeds

That'd mean Norwich v Leeds and Reading v Cardiff in the play offs, leading i'd guess to a Reading v Norwich final, but who'd win that i have no idea, or real preference.

At the other end of the table i believe the 3 teams currently in the relegation zone, Scunthorpe, Preston and Sheffield United are going down. Preston and Scunthorpe are putting up a good fight and it wouldn't entirely shock me if one of them managed to escape dragging either Crystal Palace or Doncaster into the relegation zone in their place, but i suspect neither quite has the quality to match their admirable spirit. United are surprising me this season for all the wrong reasons, i just don't understand why it's gone quite so wrong for them this year and i'm almost annoyed with myself because i've realised i'll be a little sad if they go down this year. As someone who's from Sheffield and has a lot of Unitedite mates there is a definite part of me that is revelling in their misfortune after all the crap i've had to put up with from them over the years, but in the end i do enjoy the banter and the rivalry, as well as the convenient away games and if, as looks almost certain now, neither Sheffield team is in the Championship i miss out on that side of the game which is a shame. I just can't see them saving themselves now.

Tomorrow's blog will look at the Premiership, but to finish this one i'll post a song by a band i've only discovered recently, one i'm not entirely decided on, but i know i like this song so i'll share it with you. The song's called 'Elephant' and it's by a 4 piece band from LA called 'Warpaint'. Enjoy.